TrendForce: LED market output value is expected to grow to US$13.003 billion in 2024

TrendForce's latest "Gold+ Member Market Report: Global LED Industry Database and LED Manufacturers Quarterly Update" data shows that due to weak end market demand, slow LED inventory depletion, market price competition and many other factors, the LED market output value will drop to US$12.608 billion in 2023.

Looking forward to market demand in 2024, market demand for automotive lighting and displays, lighting (general lighting, architectural lighting, agricultural lighting), LED displays, ultraviolet/infrared LEDs, etc. will have the opportunity to gradually recover. In addition, although Micro LED technology has not developed as expected, it has been successfully introduced into large displays (Samsung) and watches (Tag Heuer), leading the way to the commercialization stage of Micro LED. Overall, the LED market output value is expected to grow to US$13.003 billion in 2024 (+3% YoY). Among them, Micro/Mini LED self-luminous display, ultraviolet/infrared LED, LED display screen, automotive lighting and display, and agricultural lighting will have the opportunity to exceed the average growth rate.

TrendForce focuses on sorting out applications with market potential growth:

Micro LED applications

Wearable devices: The Micro LED version of the Apple Watch, originally scheduled to be released in 2026, was recently canceled and terminated due to the cancellation of the project. Market expectations for the application of Micro LED technology in wearable watches are definitely a heavy blow that cannot be ignored. Amid this headwind, a few suppliers, such as panel manufacturers such as AUO, have shipped small-scale products to Tag Heuer, but they are still unable to reverse the obstacles in the development of the Micro LED wearable device market.

Large Display: The yield rate of the Micro LED large display process and technology is difficult to meet development expectations, which is reflected in the high cost and actual shipment volume still remaining at the level of 100 units. Chip miniaturization is a major indicator of Micro LED cost reduction. However, judging from the current market, considering many key factors affecting the production process such as chip efficiency and transfer yield, the progress of chip size reduction in large-size displays is not very clear. This will also be the case. Slow down the pace of cost reduction.

Automotive display: Considering driving needs, Micro LED technology with high brightness, high contrast, wide color gamut, and fast response speed is used, and integrated smart cockpit automotive display solutions such as special-shaped, curved, flexible, and tactile feedback are integrated to comprehensively upgrade the driving experience. According to a TrendForce survey, knobs (Knobs) use Micro LED technology and are used in reading lights/knob buttons, and will have the opportunity to be introduced into European car manufacturers. European, American and Japanese car manufacturers plan to introduce Micro LED transparent displays. According to a TrendForce survey, car manufacturers require Micro LED heads-up displays to have a penetration rate of ≥70% and a curved surface design. As technology and product prices mature, it is expected that Micro LED transparent displays will be introduced into the automotive market in 2026-2027 as augmented reality head-up displays (AR-HUD) or car window displays.

Mini LED Display

TrendForce Survey, Mi ni LED (COB) display market demand is growing rapidly, and major display manufacturers include Samsung, LG Electronics, Leyard, Unilumin, Absen, etc.

Automotive Lighting and Display

Looking forward to the performance of the auto market in 2024, with the growth of new energy vehicle shipments, it is expected that the global passenger car and logistics vehicle market sales in 2024 are still expected to grow slightly by 2-3%. With the continuous advancement of advanced technologies such as adaptive headlights (ADB Headlight), Mini LED taillights, Full-Width Taillights, (intelligent) ambient lights, and Mini LED backlight displays, they continue to face price competition in the auto market, which will affect the price of automotive LED products. The automotive LED market size is expected to grow to US$3.445 billion in 2024.

Ultraviolet LED

In response to market requirements for high-power sterilization and purification, UV-C LED manufacturers continue to launch ≥80mW single crystal high-power and UV-C COB LED integrated packaging, and are expected to be in 2H24 -In 2026, there will be an opportunity to be introduced into the home appliance and dynamic water sterilization market applications. In addition, Huawei AITO uses UV-C LED air sterilization. The order period is from 2023 to 2025. It will also have the opportunity to drive other car manufacturers to introduce automotive air sterilization applications. In the long run, compared to UV lamps, UV LEDs have longer product life and simpler optical designs. Manufacturers such as Nichia, Seoul Viosys, Violumas, UVT and other manufacturers have launched complete UV-A/B/C LED product lines in order to provide complete wavelength solutions to meet customer needs for replacing UV lamps.

Agricultural Lighting

Looking forward to 2024, the Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Poland) region will benefit from the price reduction of plant lighting products (finished products) and the overall plant factory solution has a higher return on investment (ROI), showing relatively strong demand. In addition, in Asia High latitudes in Europe and Northern Europe have invested in the construction of plant lighting to grow fruits, vegetables and pasture to improve the adverse impact of long winters on food supply. The above factors are expected to drive the growth of the plant lighting LED market output in 2024. (Text: TrendForce Consulting)

Gold+ Member Market Report: Global LED Industry Database and LED Manufacturers Quarterly Update

Report Name

Content

Format

Publication Time

LED Industry Demand
and Supply Database

Demand Market Analysis:

PDF / Excel

1Q (Mid Mar.)
3Q (Early Sep.)

2024-2028 Demand Market Analysis

(Backlight & Flash / General Lighting / Agricultural Lighting / Architectural Lighting / Automotive - Passenger Cars & Logistics Vehicles & Locomotives / Display / UV LED / IR LED / Micro LED / Mini LED)

Supply Market Analysis:

1. Chip Market Output Value (External Sales Market Output Value, Total Sales Market Output Value)

2. Global GaN LED and AS/P LED New/Cumulative MOCVD Installation Number

3. GaN LED and AS/P LED wafer market demand
(region/size)

4. GaN LED and AS/P LED wafer supply and demand market analysis

LED manufacturers
Revenue and production capacity

LED chip market analysis:

PDF / Excel

2Q (Early Jun.)
4Q (Early Dec.)

Top 10 Chip manufacturer revenue and wafer production capacity

LED packaging market analysis:

LED manufacturers - total revenue and LED revenue, production capacity analysis

Top 10 LED manufacturers revenue in backlight and flash LED, lighting, automotive, display, ultraviolet LED

LED industry
Price survey

Sapphire/chip/package (backlight, general lighting, agricultural lighting, automotive, display screen, ultraviolet LED, infrared LED, VCSEL)

Excel

1Q (Mid Mar.)
2Q (Early Jun.)
3Q (Early Sep.)
4Q (Early Dec.)

LED Industry
Quarterly Dynamic Update

Quarterly Dynamic Analysis of Major Manufacturers

PDF

1Q (Mid Mar.)
2Q (Early Jun.)
3Q (Early Sep.)
4Q (Early Dec.)

EU / U.S- Lumileds, ams OSRAM, Cree LED

(Smart Global Holdings)

JP- Nichia, Citizen, Stanley, ROHM

KR- Samsung, Seoul Semiconductor, Seoul Viosys

ML- Dominant

TW- Ennostar, Everlight, LITEON, AOT, Harvatek, PlayNitride

CN- San’an, Changelight, HC SemiTek, Aucksun, Focus Lightings, Nationstar, Hongli, Refond, Jufei, MTC, MLS

Micro/Mini LED

Show Report (TBD)

CES 2024 / Touch Taiwan 2024

PDF

Aperiodically;