TrendForce: YOY reaches a peak of 11.3%, and the ranking of the world’s top five TV brands in Q1 is released

According to TrendForce’s latest survey, global TV brand shipments reached 47.12 million units in the first quarter of 2026, an annual increase of 3.3%, but a 12.7% decline from the previous quarter. Although facing the off-season and the reduction of "old trade-in" subsidies, market demand tends to be conservative. However, due to the tight supply of DRAM and NAND Flash due to the demand for AI Server and high-end computing, the price of TV memory will rise significantly by the end of 2025. In order to reduce subsequent cost pressure, brands prepare and pull goods in advance, which has become the main driving force supporting the growth of shipments in the first quarter.

TrendForce said that as memory and material costs continue to increase, brand product layout differentiation will become more obvious in 2026. First-tier brands will continue to promote Mini LED, large-size and high-end product layouts by virtue of their scale and cost advantages; other brands will gradually shift from small sizes to medium and large-size models with FHD resolution to alleviate cost pressures.

Due to brands adjusting product specifications and size structures, global TV shipments are expected to only slightly decrease by 1% annually in 2026, reaching 194.2 million units. The decline is significantly lower than that of consumer electronics products such as smartphones and laptops, which have a high proportion of memory costs.

Samsung ranked first in shipments in the first quarter, followed closely by TCL

Looking at the brand's shipment performance in the first quarter, the top five were Samsung, TCL, Hisense, LGE and Xiaomi. Among them, TCL benefited from its layout in North America and emerging markets, as well as the promotion of Mini LED and large-size products, with shipments reaching 7.68 million units, an annual increase of 11.3%, the highest among the top five, and continued to narrow the gap with Samsung.

Xiaomi's first-quarter shipments fell by 22% year-on-year due to the gradual weakening of subsidy benefits and the shift in product strategy to more profitable large-size and mid-to-high-end products. Rising memory prices have also pushed up the cost of small and medium-sized products, further suppressing export sales performance. On the other hand, Skyworth has taken over the North American TV business of Philips in recent years and obtained Panasonic TV brand authorization. Its shipment scale has continued to increase, and it is expected to challenge the ranking of the top five global brands in 2026.

Rising memory costs are accelerating brands' shift to large-size products

TrendForce pointed out that the rapid rise in memory prices has significantly increased the cost pressure on small and medium-sized TVs, prompting brands to accelerate the reduction of low-margin product layouts and shift product focus to medium- and large-sized models.

Taking 32-inch TVs as an example, the proportion of memory in the production cost of the whole machine has increased from 6%-7% to 15% in the first quarter. It is estimated that this will lead to an annual decrease of 9.1% in shipments in 2026, and the market share will drop to 19%. Some brands that mainly focus on small and medium-sized products have also begun to turn to low-end medium and large-sized FHD products to share the memory cost pressure.

In comparison, the memory cost ratio of 65-inch TVs only increased from 2%-3% to 10% in the first quarter, making 65-inch and 75-inch the main sizes promoted by brands this year. It is estimated that the proportion of products above 65 inches is expected to be close to 25%.

Mini LED penetration rate breaks through double digits, Samsung returns to market leadership

In addition to shifting to large-size products, Mini LED TVs have also become an important market for brands to enhance product value and profitability this year. TrendForce predicts that global Mini LED TV shipments will reach 24.9 million units in 2026, an annual increase of 87%, and the penetration rate will exceed 10% for the first time, reaching 12.8%.

Among them, mainland Chinese brands continue to promote the mainstreaming of Mini LED products through supply chain integration and cost reduction. TCL, Hisense, and Xiaomi have a combined market share of 54%. Samsung has added an entry-level Mini LED product line this year to reduce the profit pressure caused by rising memory costs. It is expected to drive its market share back to 30% and regain its leading position. As the product line continues to expand, Mini LED is gradually penetrating from the high-end to the mid-range TV market. (Source: TrendForce)

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