TrendForce: The LED lighting market size in 2025 is estimated to be US$53.573 billion

According to TrendForce's latest report "2025 Global LED Lighting Market Trends - Data Database and Manufacturer Strategies - 2H25" analysis, it is pointed out that recent changes in the international situation have intensified the uncertainty of the global economic environment, and corporate investment and business activities have shrunk significantly.

In the first half of 2025 (1H25), the LED general lighting industry did not recover as expected, the new installation market continued to be weak, the growth rate of the stock replacement market slowed down, the overall market size continued to shrink, and corporate revenue performance was poor. Looking forward to the second half of the year (2H25), changes in the international situation have heightened the market's wait-and-see mood, and the outlook is uncertain. End customers adopt prudent inventory management strategies, which limits market demand momentum.

However, the overall lighting industry demand is sluggish, but there is obvious internal differentiation. According to TrendForce’s observation, the order performance of LED high light efficiency, human-centered health lighting, smart lighting and recycling lighting products in the first half of 2025 (1H25) is very impressive, becoming a key driving force for some terminal lighting manufacturers’ revenue contribution and stable market share. At the same time, the specialized plant lighting market has benefited from the continued recovery in energy-saving demand in Europe, which has offset the downward pressure on the market in some regions.

Source: 15 August 2025, TrendForce

1. The LED general lighting market continues to decline, and some segmented applications release growth potential
In the first half of 2025 (1H25), the construction industry closely related to the LED lighting industry continued to be sluggish, and new installation and renovation projects slowed down. Although there is demand for LED replacement in the existing market, and the demand for high value-added products such as high luminous efficiency, healthy and comfortable lighting, smart lighting, and recycling lighting has increased, the overall market situation still shows a weak trend of "falling both volume and price", and it is difficult to reverse the decline in the output value of the global LED lighting market. TrendForce estimates that the full-year LED lighting market size will decline by 4.4% to US$53.573 billion.

Observing from the product and application side, TrendForce pointed out that despite the weak macroeconomic environment, due to the dual effects of high energy costs and the promotion of new regulations and policies, some segmented applications in the existing market with low LED penetration rates are expected to release incremental demand in 2025. Among them, outdoor lighting, industrial lighting and emergency lighting and other fields have opportunities to reconfigure lighting products, and are expected to continue to drive steady growth in shipments of LED street lights, LED patio lights and LED floodlights. In the new installation market, driven by the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) digital infrastructure construction, demand for related lighting products remains stable, with shipments of products such as LED linear lights (LED Light Strip) expected to maintain steady growth.

2. The penetration of smart lighting is accelerating, and smart home and smart city applications drive market growth

Driven by energy conservation and emission reduction policies and users’ pursuit of dynamic dimming and color matching and human-centered healthy lighting, the LED smart lighting market is accelerating penetration. On the technology side, thanks to the reduction in development costs, the introduction of new generation compatible protocols such as Matter, and the integration of AI algorithms, products have been quickly introduced to the market, and overall shipments have continued to grow.

As TrendForce expected at the beginning of the year, consumer market demand improved in the first half of 2025 (1H25), and the smart home lighting market rebounded strongly, driving demand for LED smart bulbs, LED smart ceiling lamps, LED smart floor lamps and LED smart light strip products to grow. Looking forward to the second half of 2025 (2H25), the government will increase investment in infrastructure construction, and smart city development has the opportunity to drive the growth potential of IoT LED outdoor lighting. TrendForce estimates that the global LED smart lighting market will be worth US$11.573 billion in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 19.2%.

3. The plant lighting market is expected to maintain moderate growth due to European support

Affected by changes in the international situation, the new and replacement demand for agricultural lighting has been under pressure, especially affecting the replacement cycle of special cash crops. The North American market is more than 80% dependent on products made in mainland China. Affected by changes in the market environment, costs are facing upward pressure, and owners generally postpone purchase plans. In addition, there are also delays in new greenhouse and vertical farm projects around the world. However, in comparison, the European market, driven by energy-saving regulations and the introduction of high-efficiency photosynthetic photon flux efficiency (PPF/W:PPE) products, maintained strong growth in the first half of 2025 (1H25), effectively coping with the negative impact in North America and other regions. TrendForce estimates that the LED plant lighting market will reach US$1.366 billion in 2025, with an annual growth rate of 3.9%.

On the product side, according to TrendForce’s observation, dynamically controllable smart LED plant growth lights are gradually introduced into application fields such as greenhouses and vertical farms, and are gradually becoming mainstream. The proportion of products equipped with 3 to 4 channels of adjustable spectrum has increased, and they are deeply integrated with intelligent control systems to promote energy saving and precise planting.

4. The revenue decline of leading manufacturers has narrowed, and industry integration has accelerated

According to the latest data from TrendForce, the revenue of the world's top 20 lighting manufacturers will be US$23.883 billion in 2024, an annual decrease of 5.3%, and market concentration continues to increase. The top five are Signify, Acuity, Panasonic, LEDVANCE and Zumtobel, ranking stable; Fagerhult benefited from strategic acquisitions and rose to ninth place.

According to TrendForce’s observation, the global lighting market demand will still be weak in the first half of 2025 (1H25), but the proportion of high-light efficiency, human health, smart and recycling lighting products has increased, and the revenue structure of some companies has improved. In addition, the revenue decline of manufacturers in Japan has narrowed significantly in U.S. dollar terms. TrendForce estimates that the revenue of the world's top 20 lighting manufacturers will drop to 22.947 billion U.S. dollars in 2025, an annual decrease of 3.9%.

At the same time, the pace of industry consolidation is accelerating, with large manufacturers integrating with brands through acquisitions (such as LEDVANCE acquiring Loblicht) to strengthen one-stop solution capabilities and regional market share. TrendForce believes that the strong will continue to be strong, and market concentration is expected to further increase. In the future, corporate strategies will focus on environmentally friendly products and digital lighting solutions, and accelerate the transformation to intelligent control systems integrating AI and sensors.

5. The price of lighting package LEDs has accelerated, and international brands have adjusted their strategies to capture the market

According to TrendForce market research analysis, the average price decline of the LED packaging market will expand in the first half of 2025 (1H25), mainly due to European and American international brand manufacturers adjusting product structure and price strategies, optimizing costs, and accelerating the introduction of cost-effective solutions. Major LED packaging manufacturers such as Cree LED and ams OSRAM have changed their market strategies. In response to the needs of terminal manufacturers for cost reduction and efficiency improvement and the pressure of price competition from packaging plants, they have taken advantage of technological advantages and adopted strategies such as low-cost solutions or broadening product parameters to capture market share. Looking forward to the second half of 2025 (2H25), terminal manufacturers are cautious in stocking up, packaging factory orders have low visibility, and downward pressure on prices continues. TrendForce estimates that lighting LED output value will drop to US$3.325 billion in 2025, an annual decrease of 7.6%.

TrendForce has insight into global LED lighting industry trends, covering general, smart and agricultural lighting market size, price and regional distribution, and analyzing the development of the packaging market. The report tracks the revenue and strategies of the top 20 manufacturers, analyzes the competitive layout of benchmark companies such as Signify, Acuity, Panasonic, LEDVANCE and Opple, and provides trends and price trends in seven major lighting categories, supplemented by monthly dynamics and analysis of policies and regulations.

TrendForce 2025 Global LED Lighting Market Trends - Data Database and Manufacturer Strategies - 2H25

1. Data Database and Manufacturer Strategies

Publication date: February 15, 2025; August 15, 2025
Format: PDF and Excel
Language: Traditional Chinese / English

2. LED Lighting market dynamics monthly report

Publication time: 20th of every month
Format: PDF
Language: Traditional Chinese / English

[EXCEL] 2025 Global LED Lighting Market Trends - Data Database

Part 1 Introduction
1.1 Market research method
1.2 GDP of major economies
1.3 Exchange rate conversion
Part 2 General lighting market analysis (2025-2029)
2.1 LED general lighting market size estimate - output value & shipments & price - product category
2.2 LED general lighting market size estimate - output value - product category - Light source type & lamp type
2.3 LED general lighting market size estimate - production value - region
2.4 LED general lighting market size estimate - production value & shipments - product & region
2.5 LED general lighting market size estimate - production value - application
2.6 LED general lighting market size estimate - stock penetration rate
2.7 Estimated size of lighting-grade packaging market - output value & shipments - application< br /> 2.8 Estimation of lighting grade packaging market size - production value & shipments - power category
2.9 Lighting grade packaging market size - production value & shipments - packaging category
2.10 Lighting grade packaging market size - production value - color temperature
2.11 Lighting grade packaging market size - production value - color rendering
2.12 Lighting LED packaging product prices
Part 3 Smart Lighting Market Size Analysis (2025-2029)
3.1 LED Smart Lighting Market Size Analysis - Production Value - Application
3.2 LED Smart Lighting Market Size Analysis - Production Value - Region
Part 4 Agricultural Lighting Market Size Analysis (2025-2029)
4.1 LED Plant Lighting Market Size Analysis - Production Value - Application
4.2 LED Plant Lighting Market size analysis - output value - region
4.3 Agricultural lighting LED market size analysis - output value & shipments - power category
4.4 Agricultural lighting LED market size analysis - output value & shipments - chip color category
4.5 Agricultural lighting LED prices
4.6 Plant lighting LED manufacturer revenue ranking (2023-2025E)
Part 5 Lighting Manufacturer Revenue Ranking and Revenue Estimate
5.1 Top 20 Lighting Manufacturer Revenue Ranking - Total Lighting and LED Lighting (2023-2025E)
5.2 Top 20 Lighting Manufacturer Revenue Ranking - Application (2023-2024)
5.3 Top 10 Lighting LED Manufacturer Revenue Ranking (2023-2024)
Part Six LED lighting product specification requirements and price trends
6.1 LED filament lamp regional market development trends 6.2 Regional market development trends of LED street lights
6.3 Regional market development trends of LED flat lights
6.4 Regional market development trends of LED trough lights
6.5 Regional market development trends of LED ceiling lights
6.6 Regional market development trends of LED explosion-proof lights
6.7 Regional market development trends of LED plant growth lights

[PDF] 1. 2025 Global LED Lighting Market Trends - Manufacturer Strategies
Lighting manufacturer revenue and development strategy analysis
• Signify - revenue status analysis - product category and application
• Signify - revenue status analysis - regional category
• Signify - product strategy analysis
• Signify - product strategy - smart home lighting
• Zumtobel - revenue status analysis
• Zumtobel - product strategy
• Fageh - Revenue Status - Application and Region
• Fagher - Revenue Status - Other Categories
• Fagher - Product Strategy
• Acuity - Revenue Status Analysis - Product Category and Application Category
• Acuity - Product Strategy Analysis
• Acuity - Product Market Strategy
• Panasonic Lighting - Revenue Status and Market Strategy
• Panasonic Lighting - Product Strategy
• Panasonic Lighting - Product Strategy - Home Lighting
• LEDVANCE / MLS - Revenue Situation Analysis - Product Category and Application Category
• LEDVANCE / MLS - Revenue Situation Analysis - Regional Category
• LEDVANCE / MLS - Product Strategy Analysis
• Opple Lighting - Revenue Situation Analysis - Product Category and Application Category
• Opple Lighting - Product Technology Analysis
• Opple Lighting - SDL Lighting product application analysis
• Opple Lighting - Product Strategy Analysis - Home Lighting
• Sunlight Lighting - Revenue Status Analysis - Product Category and Application Category
• Sunlight Lighting - Revenue Status Analysis - Regional Category
• Sunlight Lighting - Product Strategy Analysis
• Sunlight Lighting - Market Strategy Analysis

[PDF] 2. LED Lighting Market Trends Monthly Report
• Foreword
• TrendForce Viewpoint
• Lighting LED Package Manufacturers Market Trends
• LED Lighting Manufacturer Market Dynamics
• Lighting Policies and Regulations
• Niche Lighting Market Dynamics