LED capacity next year will likely be subject to excess OLED TV shock"

Morgan Stanley and UBS Securities optimistic led stocks, but Nomura Securities (Nomura) has different views. The bank pointed out in the latest report, the first half of LED in TV penetration of rapid reversal, LED TV demand began to weaken, Nomura estimates LED next year will industry overcapacity, so cut crystal electric (2448-TW) and billion light (2393-TW) target price to 101 yuan and 86 yuan. According to the "China times" reported, Nomura believes that although the LED shares have is reasonable, but the new display device OLED TV has formed the unfavorable conditions on the LED factory. For OLED TV to LED backlight, LED TV will impact the future. OLED TV is expected in the summer of 2011 listed, and occupy a space for one person in the mainstream TV market. In addition, by the end of 2011 is expected to Nomura LED TV price decline of about 58%, LED TV can stimulate demand, therefore LED and LED panel prices prices will decline at least 50%. But in the face of price crisis, LED industry has not slowed down the expansion of production capacity; next year LED possible situation of overcapacity. Based on the above factors, Nomura cut crystal electric 2011 years and 2012 years profit forecast 8- 10%, and its rating to neutral, target price by 16% to 101 yuan. Because the price is billion light pressure and TV backlight field margin is lower than expected, the bank lowered its 2010 years synchronous and 2012 year profit forecast 9- 11%, target price drop 5% to 86 yuan, to maintain a neutral rating. Including most of Asia Pacific LED factory rating, Nomura all turned to be neutral, currently only about Korean factory SEMCO, maintained a buy rating.