LED investment overheating to be wary of overdraft bubble"

Led capacity of the storm, long-standing, let LED felt so embarrassed. Speaking of LED production capacity, the industry will always be concerned about inadvertently, see a lot of reports, or overcapacity, or capacity constraints. As media reports, the industry on the current LED production capacity, the same tangle.

Conservative outcry, many enterprises swarmed in, resulting in LED industry expansion rapidly, so that the LED industry rapid capacity excess, to guard against "bubble; the radicals, LED industry market potential, is still in short supply, limited capacity, in order to promote the healthy development of LED industry, still need expansion.

Radicals: tight capacity

According to Displaysearch estimates, by 2013, LED penetration will reach more than 70%, then the number of LCD panel backlight source demand will reach 80 billion, the market size will be less than $10 billion. The amount of lighting market will be ahead of the arrival of. Technical progress makes the initial cost of the LED lamp is decreasing, while the total cost of the lamp is significantly lower than other light sources. In addition, the day before, the national development and Reform Commission came clear information, 3 year plan for phasing out incandescent lamps. According to the LED lamp environmental protection, pollution, insiders judgment, LED is expected to directly replace incandescent lamp, the popularity of schedule can greatly advance. Taking into account the decline in prices, eliminate incandescent and other factors, the conservative estimate of LED lighting penetration reached 15% in 2015, the relevant market size will be more than $50 billion.

At the same time, subject to equipment supply and talent in place, the global production capacity continues to be tight. LED market is expected to make the development of MOCVD suppliers AIXTRON and Veeco expansion plans were made, but in fact the actual production of the two manufacturers will be determined by the final demand of the market. Expert judgment, the device is currently in a highly monopolistic situation, the two manufacturers will not necessarily keep up with the production capacity.

It is understood that the main technology of LED lighting industry chain including substrate design, wafer generation, and finally the formation of chip. According to the different requirements of luminous efficiency, it can be divided into high power chip and low power chip.

At present, many domestic enterprises currently have LED lighting and small power chip technology, high power LED lighting epitaxial material requires a high "worked in the Wu Xuming semiconductor technology experts in Chinese Academy of Sciences said," in addition to the epitaxial material problem, the main technical difficulties of high-power chip and two optical design, thermal design and power supply system design. "

In this context, Chinese enterprises to the upper reaches of the LED industry chain in a slice is extremely difficult, only a small part of the enterprise to survive in the cracks. In China, engaged in the upstream epitaxial wafer, chip R & D and production enterprises and institutions have more than and 30, which is the one of LED relates to an optoelectronic lighting industry chain most complete enterprise, but the bottleneck is subject to the upstream equipment supplier capacity, large orders from the downstream face of the same, only shook his head helplessly.

Two MOCVD equipment manufacturer in Germany Ace (AIXTRON) Company and the United States dimension ekey (VEECO) a year the equipment capacity is only about 180 units, with an annual output of about 58 billion corresponding to the core particle, and the 2010 Global LED lighting chip potential demand will reach 2300 million, of which are the future does not include the ordinary family lighting the largest LED lighting applications market. MOCVD equipment manufacturing has a special monopoly, and limited capacity, Chinese enterprises can only suffer in the long wait. Although the domestic chip production has been greatly increased, but only to meet the needs of domestic packaging enterprises 20%-30%.

Because the LED chip is not only used in lamps, also widely used in the fields of traffic lights, mobile phone, notebook computer background light, in recent years, due to the rapid mobile phone, notebook computer and other industries, the rapid growth of demand for chips. Production capacity has become a bottleneck in the development of China's LED industry.

Objectively speaking, the industry's market is very broad, but the current domestic production of LED manufacturers in the Warring States period, a melee. Due to the international law LED enterprises do not grasp the core technology, is more engaged in packaging and application, in addition to processing, mostly in the domestic homegrown, the proportion of small. And did not really enter the civilian field, the market demand is very small. Even if in the future the market opened, it is difficult to grab market opportunities.

In this case, LED can make money, depending on their ability. With government subsidies, as well as technology and application of the promotion of mature, the cost will certainly be reduced, LED broad prospects. From the next 3 to 5 years, the current production capacity is far from enough. Moreover, subject to 20 years of effective patent term, the original patent structure of the industry will be forced to adjust. Strong domestic enterprises, such as to seize the opportunity will rise rapidly. However, due to the lack of technical reserves, more important is the speed of the industrial scale ahead of the application, will allow a number of enterprises to fall early.

Only a short while ago, LED began jumped into the eye of people. With the advent of the world's energy crisis, the rapid rise of the new energy industry, a number of LED companies are taking on the boat, rapid expansion, LED has become the most fashionable new energy industry".

The rapid development of the LED that most industry insiders called LED investment overheating caused overcapacity, and overdraft. Beware of "bubble"".

In February this year, the first batch of national new industrialization demonstration base of the award, the photovoltaic industry base