Review of panel price trends in Q1 2025: Seeking balance amid fluctuations

In the first quarter of 2025, the global panel market showed complex and dynamic price trends under the intertwined influence of multiple factors. TV panels showed weakness at the end of the quarter after continuing their gains at the beginning of the year. Monitor panels started a comprehensive price increase at the end of the quarter, while notebook panel prices basically remained stable.

The price trends of the three major application panels diverged in the first quarter

- TV panels started the year with a rise, but came under pressure at the end of the quarter

At the beginning of 2025, the TV panel market continued to be hot since the end of 2024, with prices generally rising. In January, the "old-for-new" policy in the Chinese mainland market continued to be vigorous, effectively stimulating the demand for stocking of complete TV sets, especially the demand for oversized panels. In this regard, panel manufacturers are also actively adjusting production capacity to meet market demand. In addition to strong demand, rumors of supply gaps in upstream components such as polarizers have also prompted panel manufacturers to increase prices.

Therefore, the "TrendForce 2025 Panel Price Forecast Monthly Report" shows that TV panel prices increased in January. Both 32-inch and 43-inch prices increased by US$1, and 55-inch prices increased by US$1. The increase in large-size panels with better demand was more obvious, with 65-inch prices increasing by US$2, 75-inch prices by US$3, and 85-inch prices by US$4.

It is worth noting that the 6.4-magnitude earthquake that struck the Chiayi area of ​​Taiwan on January 21 had a certain impact on some factories of Innolux, a major panel manufacturer in Tainan, causing some machines to shut down. Previously, TrendForce had assessed that the earthquake may put some pressure on the slightly tight supply of TV panels in the first quarter.

Stable demand will provide support for the price increase of TV panels in February. In particular, the good demand for large-size TV panels has had a certain crowding-out effect on the production capacity of small and medium-sized TV panels, which has indirectly boosted the price of small and medium-sized TV panels.

However, in March, the market began to cool down. Demand in the North American market has weakened after the "Super Bowl" promotion; while the policy-driven effects of the Chinese market are diminishing; brand customers are cautious about market demand in the second quarter due to high inventory levels due to continued high purchases starting in the fourth quarter of 2024. Against this background, TV panel price increases have begun to converge.

- Monitor panels stabilized at the bottom and rebounded at the end of the quarter

Compared with the fluctuations of TV panels, the price trend of monitor panels in the first quarter of 2025 was relatively flat and rose at the end of the quarter.

In January, display panel demand was basically the same as in the fourth quarter of 2024, and prices remained stable. As TV panel prices rise, the capacity crowding effect creates opportunities for improved demand for display panels.

Entering February, despite being in the traditional off-season, display panels still maintained good demand momentum. With the demand for TV panels improving and prices rising, panel manufacturers have begun to actively create an atmosphere for price increases for display panels. However, brand customers mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude towards this, and buyers and sellers are still in a tug-of-war stage on price trends. In February, the price of Open Cell display panels took the lead in rising slightly by US$0 to US$0.1, while panel module prices continued to remain flat across the board.

The real turning point came in March. With the good demand for TV panels and the continued promotion of panel manufacturers, display panel prices are experiencing an overall increase, and the increase is likely to expand. Although brand customers still have doubts about the future demand outlook and the impact of factors such as international trade relations, resulting in a significant gap between them and panel manufacturers in terms of acceptance of price increases, and the negotiation process between the two parties continues to see a see-saw, the price increase trend has already taken shape.

- Laptop panels remained flat throughout the process, waiting for market clarity

Compared with TV and monitor panels, notebook panel prices will be the most stable in the first quarter of 2025, basically maintaining a flat trend.

Although affected by the fermentation of international trade relations issues, starting from December 2024, some brand customers have begun to increase their stocking of notebook panels. However, due to the unclear actual policy direction, most panel manufacturers and brand customers took a wait-and-see or cautious attitude in the first quarter, and their price strategies were mainly stable. Panel manufacturers are more focused on maintaining market share and customer relationships. Therefore, notebook panel prices remained flat throughout the first quarter.

Taken together, the fluctuation of panel prices in the first quarter of 2025 is mainly affected by the following factors.

First, demand-side drivers and constraints coexist. Mainland China's "old-for-new" policies effectively boosted demand for TV panels in the early stages, but the policy effects weakened later. The end of seasonal promotions in the North American market also led to a drop in demand. The brand's inventory level has become a key factor affecting its purchasing strategy. High inventory inhibits subsequent purchasing intentions.

Second, supply-side strategies are intertwined with emergencies. Panel manufacturers’ capacity control strategies play an important role in balancing market supply and demand and stabilizing prices. The earthquake in Taiwan at the beginning of the year had a potential impact on the production of some panel factories, which once caused market concerns about supply. The supply of upstream components (such as polarizers) also directly affects the cost and shipment of panels.

The third is the uncertainty of the external environment. International trade relations are an important uncertain factor throughout the entire quarter, which directly affects the brand owners' stocking rhythm and supply chain layout, which in turn affects panel demand and price expectations.

Market demand is good, and panel companies’ performance is off to a good start

In the first quarter, in addition to notebook panel prices remaining stable, TV and monitor panel prices showed an upward trend under the influence of multiple factors such as demand and supply. Against this background, many panel companies also had a good start in the first quarter.

Leading companies in the panel industry such as Samsung Display, BOE and TCL CSOT have achieved steady revenue growth by virtue of their scale and technological advantages. In particular, BOE and TCL CSOT in mainland China have outstanding performance in profitability.

Among them, it is worth noting that while TCL CSOT achieved performance growth in the first quarter, it also officially completed the delivery of LG Display’s Guangzhou LCD 8.5-generation line on April 1. TrendForce pointed out that this move is expected to continue to increase TCL CSOT's share of global LCD large-generation line production capacity and further consolidate its market position.

Looking back at the first-quarter results, manufacturers such as LG Display, AU Optronics and Shenzhen Tianma successfully turned losses into profits during the reporting period. This may be related to the price increase of some panel products in the first quarter and the manufacturers' own cost control and efficiency improvements.

However, some companies in the industry still face challenges, and performance differentiation continues. Overall, the performance of panel companies in the first quarter reflects that after the panel market has experienced cyclical fluctuations, leading companies have demonstrated strong risk resistance and growth potential, while market competition remains fierce.

Panel prices for the three major applications continued to diverge in the second quarter

Judging from the April panel prices and May panel price forecasts released in the "TrendForce 2025 Panel Price Forecast Monthly Report", in the second quarter of 2025, the price trends of the three major application panels will continue to diverge.

In terms of TV panels, demand for TV panels began to show signs of correction starting in April. Brand customers began to place revised orders in April due to inventory reaching a certain level and the uncertainty of the external policy environment. Overall demand has weakened, panel manufacturers have become more conservative, and TV panel prices will remain flat across the board in April.

In May, as the trend of weakening demand became established, some brand customers began to require panel manufacturers to make more concessions on price. TrendForce said that in response to falling panel prices, panel manufacturers initiated production reduction measures during the Labor Day holiday in May. It is estimated that the average industry utilization rate in May will be revised down by about 6-7% from April, hoping to slow down price pressure through supply and demand adjustments. Therefore, TV panel prices are expected to remain flat across the board in May.

Unlike TV panel prices, monitor panel prices have continued their upward trend in March. Due to tariff exemptions, some brand customers are actively stocking up, which has boosted demand. TrendForce predicts that monitor panel prices will remain stable in May, but due to the weakening demand for TV panels, the increase may converge.

As for notebook panels, due to the cautious attitudes of both supply and demand, notebook panel prices remained stable in April and May.

Looking to the future, based on forecasts in April and May, in the second quarter, TV panel prices will tend to remain flat due to weakening demand and manufacturers' production cuts; monitor panels are expected to continue to rise under short-term stimulation from factors such as tariff exemptions, but the increase may converge; notebook panels are expected to maintain price stability, and panel manufacturers may adopt more flexible pricing strategies to win orders and market share.

Summary

Generally speaking, after the panel market in the first quarter of 2025 experienced general growth at the beginning of the year, different application fields showed differentiated price trends.

The TV panel market was the first to feel the pressure of weakening demand, and price increases slowed down; monitor panels started to make up for the increase due to multiple favorable factors; notebook panels remained relatively stable amid uncertainty. Panel manufacturers, brands and the entire supply chain are paying close attention to market dynamics and flexibly adjusting strategies to cope with the complex and ever-changing market environment.

In the next few quarters, supply and demand, inventory levels, external policies, and the pace of global economic recovery will remain key variables affecting panel price trends.